Joe Biden is over. He may not lose his poll-topping place yet, but the seeds have been planted, and the fall of the small stones that start an avalanche have already begun.
My prediction is that Biden's campaign collapse is inevitable, and that within a couple months max, the polls will reflect this.
Biden has only two things going for him. Firstly, the Democratic base is rightly demanding the removal from office of Donald Trump. They are scared to death that he might win another term. Unfortunately though they are convinced, thanks to the current and years of propogandising by corporate media and establishment figures, that only an avowed centrist can win. That a socialist like Bernie Sanders, or anyone else on the left could do it, is heracy in the MSNBC/CNN etc world.
That is an objectively false perspective. The data firmly shows that Bernie Sanders would CRUSH Donald Trump by at least 10 points. Polls have been showing this since before this time in the last presidential primary. Bernie and socialism in general would destroy Trump and Republicanism. Though she doesn't call herself a democratic socialist, if AOC were old enough to run, she too would crush it. If Sen. Warren wins this primary, she'll kick Trump's ass. Gabbard, too. Etc.
It is not true that Biden is the best chance against Trump. At all. In fact, whilst I think he could beat Trump, he's a major flight risk - like Hillary Clinton was.
Why then is Biden showing just as high poll numbers against Trump then, as Bernie? A great question: people think Biden's a winner because they think Biden's a winner. And that's it. The number one reason people are supporting Biden is because they think "well, everyone else is going to support him and thinks he can win". They're not voting for him because of what he'd be like as president.
If the image that 'Joe is a winner' started to crack - if his poll numbers started to drop by a bit, say 15%, if he seemed weak on stage, or if other signs appear that he's not a 'big winner' - then that illusion that Joe is the one to take on Trump will disappear, and the drop in his support will expand exponentially.
That's what's begun. Biden was easily the biggest loser of the two Democratic debates - on stage he seemed lackluster, without conviction, he looked caught out, and he looked defeated. And he was. With Kamala Harris leading the way, and Bernie and Michael Bennet landing some heavy, heavy blows, Biden got his ass handed to him.
It's being reported that Biden's campaign staff were freaking out about his performance as they watched on in horror, and that he, in his arrogance, did not comply with his debate prep and is too stuck in his ways. The tone in Biden watch parties across the country was apparently 'awkward'.
His image of being the untouchable winner is certainly damaged now. If, and it is an if, though one I think will come to fruition, if the other candidates can continue the type of attacks the landed on him last night, Biden's winner image will soon disappear completely.
It is already beginning - today, I reported on how Biden has lost a major mega-donor after recent grave mistakes he's made. The well networked mega-donor went on to say that he expected other donors to back out soon, too. Biden's image of a 'winner' is starting to crack, big style. If that happens, it's over for Biden.
Ok, so that's one of his key campaign pillars and its downfall. What's the other?
The other thing getting Biden through this primary is his affinity with Barack Obama and his current support, thanks to being affiliated so closely with Barack Obama, amongst the African-American community. The media and establishment and of course the Biden campaign have continued to push the narrative that Biden is the black American's candidate. With the frequency that Biden has said the words "Barack Obama" on the campaign trail and debate stage, you'd think they're the only words he knows.
But Biden has a terrible, terrible record on many things, especially issues that affect minorities. Of course his reprehensible support of the anti-bussing movement (he even in the 70's supported a constitutional amendment to give states the rights to ban bussing), for a start. Further, his very public affection for and bipartisan collaboration with vile segregationists is horrendous, and not forgetting his proud authorship and leadership on the horrifically draconian 90's crime bill that has lead to the decimation of so many black and latinx communities. Not to mention his support for the Iraq War, for the continuance of the drug war, his ardent support of credit card companies and against Medicare For All - all policies that negatively impact minorities more than others. And on it goes.
Barack Obama did not pick Joe Biden because of his then support in the black community. He picked him because of his support with conservative whites and Republicans. It's a dangerous tragedy that the truth of that point has been confused.
But with Biden's consistent arrogance causing him to again and again publically talk about his affinity for racists, and with Kamala Harris' death blow attacks on his anti-bussing stances in last night's debates, the cracks in this campaign's armour are starting to show. If the other candidates can break through that armour completely, his campaign will fall. As I mentioned, Biden has just lost a mega donor over his connections with racists, and his flip-flopping on the Hyde Amendment.
The question is, will another establishment candidate be the one to deal the fatal wounds and assume his place?
That actually is all up in the air as a real, solid possibility. Let's find out how the story unfolds.
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